I earlier reposted the Bespoke long-term S&P P/E chart. Here it is again:
It's kinda hard to tell, but it looks like the trailing 12-month P/E bottomed around August to October 2011 or so.
Would you agree with that? Sound about right to you?
OK, now check out these two charts:
Sometime around August to October 2011 was the bottom in the S&P's trailing 12-month P/E.
Since then SPY has gone up 50%.
Now look at $HUI:
Peaked in September 2011, now down 60% over the same period.
Peaked in August to September 2011, now gold is down over 30%.
When did gold bottom, by the way? Around 2000? That was the S&P's bubble peak of 30 P/E.
Basic Jim Rogers theory:
- A secular S&P bull will be coincident with a commodity & EM bear.
- A secular S&P bear will be coincident with a commodity & EM bull.
- A secular S&P bull sees rising P/E.