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Thursday, February 23, 2017

Peter Boockvar on euphoria or not


Ritholtz - what would John Templeton think? This was the part that really tweaked my interest:

We know that the amount of Bulls in the weekly Investors Intelligence survey have only been seen a few times over the past few decades. They currently total 61.2 vs 61.8 last week. Bears are a microscopic 17.5. I’m no technician and only use overbought/oversold metrics as a background message fully understanding that when extreme in one direction, it can get more so but we are really, really stretched. The 14 day RSI in the NDX yesterday closed at 84.7, the highest since January 1992. It was 84.2 in January 2000. The index is up 11 out of 12 days and that down day totaled 1.7 pts. The technology sector within the S&P 500 is up 14 days in a row.

Valuations don’t matter until they do and certainly haven’t mattered for a while but we can’t deny the fact of where stocks are trading relative to other historical peaks.

Much of the ebullience is being driven by hopes over a large cut in the corporate tax rate. To put numbers to this, the Bloomberg US exchange market capitalization has increased by $2.5 Trillion since the day of the election. According to the CBO estimate, the US will take in $320 Billion in fiscal year 2017 in TOTAL corporate income taxes. Thus, if the entire corporate tax was eliminated, we’ve priced that in by 8 times and some of those corporations are privately held.

Then again, have all the Republicans who stayed out of the market thru 8 years of Balrog HUSSEIN Taxbongo bought in yet? You have to know how much money is still to enter the market before you can call a top.

Personally, I'm looking more and more at CIE.TO for an ex-US developed market story. It's regained its losses from 2015 and seems to want to break to a new high. Europe (and Japan, meh) may be moribund, but that would hopefully also mean they're trading at a very low P/E compared to the US.

I'll have to check it further.


Wednesday, February 22, 2017

YOU WON'T BELIEVE WHAT JUST HAPPENED


OK, so I guess GDX really should drop down and retest its SMA(50), so that's what it seems to be thinking of doing right now.

Meanwhile the SPY is silly expensive, but then again Trump's going to save 'Merica, right?

So here's the important news:

Vice - new Lana Del Rey single will save us all. Quote:

She has acted as a symbol of our secret desires, our excesses and our failings, simply by exploring her own character.

But with Love, Lana has given up on narcissism and stretched out her hands to us more directly than she has ever dared to before. She has abandoned the self-examining character she has maintained for five years, and stepped out of the hazy fantasy world of her own construction. In Love, Lana discards her favourite subject (herself), and instead talks about us, the audience, and the real world.

Love speaks with uncharacteristic directness: "Look you kids, you know you're the coolest. The world is yours and you can't refuse it."

Lana is looking directly into our eyes and addressing us. Throughout her work, Lana has maintained the Del Rey character fastidiously, never breaking out of her solemn, brooding persona for fear of ruining the magic of her image. In Love, she grins openly at the screen, exuding warmth and winking knowingly. She seems to be whispering: "Let's stop playing games for a minute. This one's for you."

It's a great video, I can't stop watching it.

"Don't worry, baby" Lana beams, and her soothing reverb floods us with warmth ­- ultimately, she wants this song to comfort us. Yes, to a degree, she wants to shake us out of apathy, and remind us that the apathy she exudes in her character is merely an act at the end of the day, but she also wants us to know we're doing a damn good job of coping with the world we're living through.

Lana's Love it seems is all about navigating the harsh, unforgiving landscape we find ourselves, and if it's a pointer in the direction she's heading in, maybe her new era will be all about lifting us up.

Thanks for coming to save the day, Lana!

May as well give you the video already:


Thursday, February 16, 2017

And some more charts, while I still can....


SPY:


Six white candles in a row, RSI 78, means this is overbought.

Then again, (1) Wooh Trump, (2) the US averages did spend two entire years consolidating sideways, right?

So this is not evidence of a blow-off top, no matter which doomer blogger you read. But it's definitely getting stupid. A 24 PE is stupid.

And no, macroeconomics says that massive tax breaks don't improve GDP when unemployment is at NAIRU. Especially not when they're funded by taking money away from the poor. That's actually contractionary, not expansionary.

Though portfolio theory does say that would have a positive wealth effect for both stocks and bonds.

QQQ:


QQQ is looking even more frothy, with 9 white candles in a row, and RSI >82. Then again, most of that comes from AAPL, which gapped up at the start of the month and continues to run away from the market. So maybe the froth will go on.

Yes, trade economics says that when the world trade and technology hegemon becomes belligerent, the most powerful US tech leaders and innovators will necessarily profit. Cuz I said so.

Trannies:


If there is a blow-off top forming, you have to ask what should happen to it the moment that $TRAN confirms it after a 2-month consolidation. Dow theory says this'll make the blow-off gather steam. We'll have to see if the $TRAN breakout holds.

Banks:


This is utter bullshit. Eliminating bank regulation won't make them more profitable.

How do I know?

Because Clinton eliminated all bank regulation in the 90s, and 1) it took bank equities several years before they went on their run, 2) that mid-2000s run was actually not worth investing in because there were better places to be (potash, mining, oil, US consumer, EMs - I can list you 100 stocks and ETFs that had a much better return than any major bank), and 3) it turned out that the banks were only running Ponzi schemes, so that profitability was only an illusion.

So the >20% advance we've already seen in the banks is already bullshit, and any continued bullshit from here on is basically a big red flag indicating where the next crash is going to be.

Gold chart


Let's see if Blogger lets me post a gold chart again:



Ah, there we go.

I wanted to post it to show how gold keeps dipping to the Bollinger mean, and at the end of the last month to the SMA(50), just like clockwork.

This is a very dependable advance.

But I guess it'll move slower as it approaches $1250-$1255, which is an important point on the previous downtrend.

Then again, maybe not.

But I love how new buying keeps driving gold back up when it hits all these little technical averages.


Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Some news


Well, one midterm left, and it's financial economics, which should be no problem.

Meanwhile, I've got my RSS transferred off of GReader, which doesn't seem to work on any of my devices at all anymore. So here's news!:


Calculated Risk - retail sales increased 0.4% in January. Because Trump!

NDD - real nonsupervisory wages have declined over the past year. BTW, I'm sure he and I agree that Trump is a moron who'll destroy America, but I think in his case it might be irrationally affecting his economic outlook.

Calculated Risk - LA port traffic surges in January. Because Trump, I guess. Oh well, better keep an eye on inventories....

NDD - consumer fundamentals nowcast. Again, I think the Trumpocalypse is colouring his analysis.

Bloomberg - Morgan Stanley sees a bright decade for China stocks. That's nice and all, but it begs the question: Are these the same analysts who said last year they expected global GDP to collapse by 5%?



Sunday, February 12, 2017

Some Trump charts


New Deal Demoncrat - some Sunday thoughts. Wherein he reproduces a whole pile of interesting charts about Trump.

These two are interesting from a market perspective:



Consumer spending has picked up because everyone expects Trump to give them a free pony.



People have more confidence because, again, free ponies.

And I hate the strident wharrgarbl of the extreme left as much as anyone else, but the fact is that you can't beat statistics:



Yup, the more sexist and racist you are, the more likely it is you voted Trump.

Other bloggers are gutless pantywaist sissies who don't like posting about Trump for fear their subscribership will drop. Not me.

Thursday, February 9, 2017

goldbug post


I guess goldbugs should feel positive about the fact that the big boys seem to want to constantly run stops on miners and the metals.

See, for example, the action after precisely 1PM Wednesday.

Personally, I'm watching SAND and BTG, because those stocks are heavily held in the ETFs, so if there's major ETF buying of miners you'll see massive moves in those two stocks. Kinda like what Dundee Precious Metals used to do years ago.

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Dooooom


How the hell are you supposed to prove that the orthonormal subspace of an orthonormal subspace is that orthonormal subspace?

With that out of the way, here's a bit of dooooomery from New Deal Demoncrat:


NDD - JOLTS survey continues to unimpress. New hires have been going nowhere. But won't Trump change everything?

NDD - Gasoline prices and inflation. The pop in fuel prices means real wages have now stalled. But won't President Piddles The Pooty Puppet change everything?

Interesting Brexit article


My cat has an infected wound. I have an algebra midterm today. And I have a polisci essay proposal due tomorrow (which will be based on Philip Mirowski's study of the Mont Pelerin Society, if you must know).

Then a Financial Econ quiz for this weekend, an Econometrics assignment due next Wed, and midterms next week in Advanced Macro, Economic Geography, and Financial Econ.

And probably other stuff. So, as you can see, I'm busy.

But here's an interesting study that was done on Brexit vote patterns:


BBC - local voting figures shine new light on EU referendum. The regressions show that, by and large, the vote against the EU was indeed swung by the lower-educated and older voters who have been on the losing end of globalization.


Wednesday, February 1, 2017

neo-Nazi cum dumpster KellIe Leitch surprised that people are acting on the hate she's incited


Timeline of a science fiction story, if only people who read that genre believed in such nonsense being possible:

1. Kellie Leitch realizes she could win a whole pile of extra votes by campaigning on an "I'm Canada's Trump" platform.

2. Kellie Leitch says she doesn't mind if racists are supporting her, and thus begins her new strategy of lovingly taking neo-Nazi cum in her ass.

3. Even by the end of the year, she's still pumping her "Canadian values" platform. In this case, "Canadian values" includes getting your loose ass pumped full of neo-Nazi cum, as well of course as anything else that Conservatives typically stand for, like destroying the country's economy.

4. Whereupon her campaign strategy of taking neo-Nazi cum in every hole starts paying off, as the endorsements from neo-Nazi groups start rolling in.

5. Even last week, her campaign manager freaks out on a constitutional scholar, using neo-Nazi slang that (in my hometown) would get his face stomped off his puny little body. Which is especially funny cos this clown Kouvalis isn't even Aryan: he's from what the neo-Nazis call "one of the swarthy mud-races", and thus he should probably keep his fucking mouth shut, he's just making himself look stupid.

6. Til finally someone guns down people in a mosque in Quebec, and Canadian values respond by putting some of the blame where it belongs: on her and her neo-Nazi campaign manager and her neo-Nazi following. Then, suddenly, she doesn't like Canadian values so much.

Dear Kellie Leitch: I'm all for Canadian values. I just think you don't have the slightest fucking clue what they are, and I would never let you be in charge of deciding them.

Everyone else says you're just mouthing the words to try to win the leadership.

I disagree. I'll accept at face value your self-portrayal as a neo-Nazi cum dumpster til you prove otherwise.

The number 1 universal Canadian value, shared by every Canadian who's not from fucking Alberta, is this:

CANADIANS DON'T ACT LIKE ASSHOLE AMERICANS