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Wednesday, March 22, 2017



BBC News - The Blaze host Tomi Lahren suspended over pro-choice arguments. Look at them trying to take away our freedoms!:

US conservative political commentator Tomi Lahren has reportedly been suspended from her talk show after saying she holds pro-choice views on abortion.


Ms Lahren said: "I'm someone that is for limited government, so I can't sit here and be a hypocrite and say I'm for limited government, but I think that the government should decide what women do with their bodies."

You see! She stands up for liberty against the Statist stormtroopers, and so they silence her!

And they say they stand for women's rights!


Reports suggest her show may now be cut altogether, amid rising tensions between Ms Lahren and other Blaze employees and hosts.


The conservative network describes itself as "a platform for a new generation of authentic and unfiltered voices".

Ha! "Unfiltered"! More like STATIST, amirite?

Where the fuck is Jeff Berwick when you need him?

No seriously, is he still going on about that idiotic apocalypse bullshit? There's statist oppression of liberty going on here!

Essay done! And some news

Essay is done!

It's titled "Death to Neoliberalism". But in a witty way.

Now some news:

Calculated Risk - chem barometer increases in March. Strongest year-over-year gain in seven years, in fact. Seems all the factory owners wanted to celebrate the Trump victory by buying 5,000 litres of sulphuric acid, then melting stuff with it or something I guess I dunno.

Tim Taylor - what's needed for sustained growth in India? It kinda makes Jim O'Neill look like an utter dumbass for once suggesting India could ever succeed given what a dismal state its economy is in.

BBC News - Colorado Republican chairman facing jail time for... well of course he is. The guy who said "every case of voter fraud I've ever seen has been perpetrated by Democrats" is now about to be sent to state-funded assrape school for three years for... what, now?

And, of course, it had to be his ex-wife.

Monday, March 20, 2017

Monday evening news

If you're reading this, it means I'm putting off my essay for polisci, due Thursday.

Here's the news:

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Nothing to worry about, buy SPY. Oh wait, you're already doing that because the magical Muslim negro is out of the White House, right?

Calculated Risk - comments on Feb housing starts. Nothing to worry about, buy SPY. Oh wait, you're already doing that because Trump is going to make America great again.

New Deal Demoncrat - real retail sales and the 2017 outlook. Nothing to worry about, buy SPY. Oh wait, you're already doing that because the US economy always does so well under Republicans.

FT Alphaville - China DOOOOOM. Nothing to worr... wait, what? Oh, turns out it's just some fucktard from a minor investment house predicting China DOOOOOM again. They haven't gotten it right before.

Brad DeLong - hey, what happened to Trump's infrastructure push? Turns out it didn't exist. Go ahead and sell commodities & construction now, and let the Republican Trumptards be the ones left holding the bag.

Gold setup


When it broke above the SMA(50) (blue line) in January, that was good. +1.

Then it came down and lightly touched the SMA(50) intraday, and that generated a successful test of a breakout.  +2.

Then it sailed up to the SMA(200) (red line), where it turned around at the end of February. That was the market's way of saying "don't get too hasty". That's nothing to worry about, it's basic TA trading. +2.

So then it fell quickly back down to the SMA(50) in early March. That would possibly have been worrying. +2.

But it wasn't able to crash right through the SMA(50). Nor was it able to definitively lose $1200. Those both showed strength. +3.

Then it had a decent-volume day last Wednesday where it reacted to an obvious Fed announcement by popping $15, back up to the SMA(50). That looks good, because it makes me think the early-March sellers got caught on the wrong side of the boat by betting that gold was all done. +4.

Now, in the medium term, the question is whether gold can continue upward thru $1240, triggering a positive MACD crossover in the process. If it does, it starts looking tasty again and goldbugs are happy; if it doesn't, and it instead crashes back thru the SMA(50) and down to $1200, then dumb people will start saying "OMG head and shoulders pattern!", which it isn't because a H&S is not a continuation pattern.

In the somewhat longer term, if gold gets above the SMA(200), then things will be good. And if that drags the SMA(50) above the SMA(200), then things get really good.


For some reason, a lot people have been coming to my blog this weekend via Google, looking for info on Lydian.

My simple answer is this:


Sunday, March 19, 2017

Don't hold your breath waiting for the next China

I keep thinking the "China miracle" ain't gonna happen elsewhere, and that the reason there was a Chinese miracle was that they had tens of thousands of scholars who knew ten years ago what the rest of the world is only figuring out now:

Tim Taylor - Africa's cities: the low development trap. Here's a long quote from the original authors:

In principle, cities should benefit businesses and people through increased economic density. Firms clustered in cities should be able to access a wider market of inputs and buyers, with reduced production costs thanks to scale economies. Workers should consume more diverse products and services, pay less for what they consume, and enjoy easier commutes because of proximity to their jobs. Africa’s cities feel crowded precisely because they are not dense with economic activity, infrastructure, or housing and commercial structures. ...

Typical African cities share three features that constrain urban development and create daily challenges for residents:

  • Crowded, not economically dense — investments in infrastructure, industrial and commercial structures have not kept pace with the concentration of people, nor have investments in affordable formal housing; congestion and its costs overwhelm the benefits of urban concentration.
  • Disconnected — cities have developed as collections of small and fragmented neighborhoods, lacking reliable transportation and limiting workers’ job opportunities while preventing firms from reaping scale and agglomeration benefits.
  • Costly for households and for firms — high nominal wages and transaction costs deter investors and trading partners, especially in regionally and internationally tradable sectors; workers’ high food, housing, and transport costs increase labor costs to firms and thus reduce expected returns on investment...
In sum, the ideal city can be viewed economically as an efficient labor market that matches employers and job seekers through connections (Bertaud 2014). The typical African city fails in this matchmaker role. A central reason for this failure — one that has not yet been sufficiently recognized — is that the city’s land use is fragmented. Its transport infrastructure is insufficient, and too much of its development occurs through expansion rather than infill. While the underlying causes of these problems are regulatory and institutional, the effects of spatial fragmentation are material: It limits urban economies. ... And without the economic density that gives rise to efficiency, Africa’s cities do not seem to increase worker productivity....

And that's why China's leadership was smart to build out their urban infrastructure ahead of time, "ghost cities" and all.

Friday, March 17, 2017

Friday video: Loop FFS

Spacemen 3 accused these guys of ripping them off.

Which is a bit rich because you'll agree this is a teensy bit better than anything Spacemen 3 had in 1989.

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Well of course he is

CBS News - "So I repeat again, the senator from Kentucky is now working for Vladimir Putin."

Well of course he is, Johnny boy.

Sen. John McCain accused fellow Republican Sen. Rand Paul of “working for Vladimir Putin” on Wednesday.

The fireworks came as McCain spoke in support of a Senate unanimous consent request in support of Montenegro’s bid to join NATO. The libertarian-leaning Paul, who has often advocated for a less interventionist foreign policy, opposes the resolution.

“You are achieving the objectives of Vladimir Putin...trying to dismember this small country which has already been the subject of an attempted coup,” McCain said, in an apparent reference to Paul.

Most of these goldbug libertopians are working for Putin. Rand Paul's daddy is on Russia's payroll, and the Ron Paul Institute has been publishing Russian propaganda for years.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Summary of today's market action

So today, on a Fed announcement that was already baked into futures, so it should have surprised no-one, we saw

1) USD drop 1%
2) gold pop almost 2%
3) EEM pop 2.5% because of course they would when US interest rates rise
4) and oh yeah equities back threatening new highs.


Because everyone had sold all those things down thinking the completely anticipated and boring Fed announcement would make markets drop.

And yet they keep going up. So now everyone has to buy their positions back.


Fair cop btw the guy in the comments a while back who suggested buying EMs instead of DMs.

Very quick market comment

Algebra test today, no time to chat.

But as far as the market goes:

Sure, S&P and Nasdaq charts look fine, but $TRAN is giving a negative signal.

We'll have to see how the market responds to the Fed today.

And how it responds to that response on Thursday and Friday.

Frankly, I don't think 3 rate rises this year will be bad, for either stocks or the economy, since sentiment is positive. But all that matters is what the market decides to think.

PS came across a hilarious McGrattan & Prescott paper from fall 2000, where they thought the market was undervalued. Just goes to show you that economists don't know jack.




Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Liberal pussy gets told off

The Atlantic - a violent attack on free speech at Middlebury oh noes!

Sent my way by Bob Lefsetz, who is an alum and wrote about the story today.

Quote (not Bob):

Liberals must defend the right of conservative students to invite speakers of their choice, even if they find their views abhorrent.

Uh, fucking no.

If there's one thing politics of the past 30 years has taught us, it's that conservatives feel they have the right to scream down, threaten, intimidate and drive away anyone who disagrees with them.

You see it today where any remotely mainstream comment on a Youtube political video is met with a thousand clowns calling people "cuck" and "sjw".

And libby-libs today respond by being little fluffy pussies about it.

And that's why we're where we are today. The liberals have spent 30 years being gutless, so the white trash decides to vote populist because at least the populists seem willing to throw a punch for you.

As Bob says, good on Middlebury's liberals for finally growing a pair of fucking balls. Hope next time they wear steeltoes and start fighting, instead of just shouting and jumping on a car.

I'd add as an aside to Bob that the reason people used to fight it out at university in the 60s was because the working class was allowed in universities back then. Now it's all bourgeois rich kids, and they all think they have the right to speak because something something God something something Constitution something something rights. And the right-wing loons see they can get away with insulting people now, so that's what they do.

That's not the way it is in the real world. In the real world, sure: you have the right to speak. You also have the right to get fucked up by the people who you piss off when you speak - or at least that's the way it is outside the bourgeois intellectual world of the university.

If you don't like the rules of today's civil discourse, change them. But don't be some sort of pussy who thinks he can change anything by taking "the high road".

You can change the rules by demonstrating that there are consequences.

Civil discourse, believe it or not, requires the threat of violence.

As for Charles Murray? Well, ages ago he published a big fat book that said blacks are genetically inferior, so he's probably used to being shouted down by now. And he certainly wouldn't try giving a speech at Howard or Tuskegee, would he?

The kind of bitchiness I get up to in critical theory classes

Me: "Isn't it ironic that Marxism degenerated into a bourgeois pastime?"

Prof: *goes ballistic*

Me: "I mean, haven't you noticed that the only Marxists left in North America are all making well over $100,000 a year?"

Prof: "head assplodes*